Five Eyes Adrift: Alliance in Crisis Under Trump (mid-2025)

The provided text examines the critical state of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance as of mid-2025, attributing its existential crisis primarily to the second Trump administration's "America First" policies, which erode trust and politicize intelligence. It details how the principle of "default sharing" is failing, with allies actively considering withholding sensitive intelligence due to fears of leaks and the weaponization of security partnerships for economic leverage, particularly against Canada. The document also explores the historical foundation of the alliance built on unique trust and integrated operations, contrasting it with the current transactional approach that threatens its cohesion. Finally, it outlines scenarios for the alliance's future, ranging from a "hollow" existence to the formation of a "Four Eyes" pivot or a new "Euro Eyes" network, offering strategic recommendations for allies and U.S. stakeholders to navigate this unprecedented period of instability.

Research done with the help of artificial intelligence, and presented by two AI-generated hosts.